Pakistan could require between 62,660MW and 70,720MW of additional electricity by 2035 to support economic growth, according to the updated IGCEP 2025–35 plan.
The plan outlines a 10-year roadmap for expanding power generation and transmission across the country. The required capacity depends on economic growth, with three scenarios: low growth (3.52%), medium growth (4.95%), and high growth (6.37%).
Even though future demand is expected to rise due to economic recovery and industrial activity, electricity use is currently falling across the country. One major reason is the growing use of rooftop solar systems and net metering, which is reducing reliance on the national grid.
The report also highlights that the power system is not being fully used. The load factor has dropped from around 70% to nearly 58–60%, showing that existing capacity is underutilised.
Despite this decline, planners believe the situation is temporary. They expect demand to improve in the coming years with better system management and efficiency, aiming to bring the load factor back to 70% by 2035.
The future energy mix will focus more on local and renewable sources. Hydropower is expected to make up 34% of total capacity, while solar and wind together will contribute 27%. At the same time, reliance on imported fuels will reduce, with furnace oil being completely phased out.
The plan includes major additions such as 21,400MW from hydropower, up to 13,200MW from solar, and around 11,500MW from wind. It also includes power from RLNG, nuclear energy, and smaller contributions from coal, gas, and bagasse.
However, the cost of this expansion is high. Around $46–54 billion will be needed for power generation, along with another $4.6–6 billion for improving the transmission system.
The plan also considers the growing role of solar systems at homes and businesses. Net metering alone is expected to add over 8,000MW to the system by 2035.
Electricity supply to Karachi is also expected to increase, with more power being sent from the national grid in the future.
Experts say the plan looks strong on paper, but its success depends on actual demand growth. If demand does not rise as expected, the country could end up with excess power capacity, leading to higher costs for consumers.
